A Looming Threat: Future Houthi Attacks from Somalia’s Coast
Mustafa Osman Farah1
The Horn of Africa, an area known for its unrest and strife now faces a fresh and worrying trend that might change the security scene in the region and further afield.
New reports from shows a worrying team-up between Al-Shabaab, the Somali militant group, and the Houthis from Yemen. This secret partnership has a big impact on safety in the region and around the world. It marks a new stage for Al-Shabaab, as the group now has better weapons and military know-how. The United States has verified that Al-Shabaab has direct connections with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, prompting security concerns, according to General Michael Langley of AFRICOM during a Senate hearing.
Al-Shabaab, traditionally focused on ground-based guerrilla tactics, may now be equipped with drones, guided or unguided missiles, and anti-aircraft systems, from the technical support they got from the Houthis. This shift in Al-Shabaab’s capabilities enables the group to conduct aerial and precision strikes, expanding its reach and ability to target critical infrastructure, including international shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean. This poses a direct threat to global trade and the security of the Horn of Africa.
Through their affiliation Al-Shabaab and the Houthis participate in a growing network of jihadist organizations which are connected to Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) beyond their weapon and technological exchanges. As Al-Shabaab builds its transnational connections its capabilities transform from domestic insurgence to becoming a prominent transnational menace. The terror group Al-Shabaab has transformed into Al-Qaeda’s most profitable and dangerous subdivision that generates hundreds of millions of dollars each year.
The current leader of Al-Shabaab Ahmed Diriye alias ‘Ubu Ubeyda‘ is expected to take control of the global leadership position of the organization. Recent unconfirmed reports indicate that Diriye spent time in Afghanistan during past years to enhance collaboration with the Al-Qaeda Global Network. Al-Shabaab maintains a growing partnership with the Houthis that presents an increasing danger to the region.
If this is true, it’s deeply concerning that Ahmed Diriye, now the leader of Al-Shabaab most sophisticated Al-Qaeda affiliate, could have traveled freely to Afghanistan despite being one of the most wanted individuals. Moving through regions like Yemen, which are often poorly monitored, raises serious questions about security gaps. Even more alarming is Somalia’s coastline, which remains largely unchecked.
The October 2024 report from the UN on Yemen disclosed the Houthis were exploring maritime attack operations from Somalia’s coastline. In a 2024 report, the UN Panel of Experts warned that the Houthis are looking to expand their operations by launching attacks from the Somali coast. Citing confidential sources, the report stated: “According to confidential sources, in order to extend their area of operation, the Houthis are evaluating options to carry out attacks at sea from the Somali coast. To that end, they are strengthening ties with the terrorist group Harakat Al-Shabaab Al-Mujaahidiin (Al-Shabaab).”
The Government of Yemen has also reported an increase in arms smuggling between the two groups, with evidence showing they possess identical weapons suggesting direct exchanges or a shared supplier. Experts say this growing cooperation poses a serious threat to regional peace and security.
On January 11, 2024, U.S. forces intercepted a stateless dhow off the Somali coast carrying missile components intended for the Houthis. The shipment included parts closely resembling those used in Iranian-made Ghadir and “351” cruise missiles
The United States confirmed enhanced cooperation between Al-Shabaab and Ansar Allah during June 2024 because of their combined maritime activities.
The UN issued a report in February 2025 which showed both groups conducted multiple meetings in Somalia during July and September 2024 as they progressed their relationship through the Red Sea crisis. According to reported terms of their agreement Ansar Allah supplies Al-Shabaab with weapons as well as operational expertise which enables the rebellion group to enhance piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden for ransom generation.
Also Intelligence agencies found evidence that Houthis and Al-Shabaab representatives held at least two meetings in Somalia late in 2024 to arrange an agreement for willingness to trade weapons and training with piracy services and ransom payments. The U.S and it allies find this alliance threatening because it would create a fresh money stream for the Houthis and let Al-Shabaab access better weapons.
The connection between these two groups could lead to more organized and sustained attacks, further displacing communities and adding to the already overwhelming humanitarian crisis. Somalia, which is struggling with political instability and poverty, could become even more vulnerable to regional destabilization.
A rising security concern exists between Al-Shabaab and Ansar Allah (Houthis) who disregard their ideological differences to form practical partnerships. Such a strategic partnership makes it more difficult to implement counterterrorism strategies. Modern technology employed by Al-Shabaab presents a fresh challenge that puts stress on Somali security forces along with AUSSOM in their counterterrorism operations. Modern warfare methods have made traditional military methods inadequate for interception and prediction efforts because they resist standard military attacks.
The ransom payments made to Somali pirates by Al-Shabaab serve as a part of its ongoing collaboration with piracy groups since the group maintains control over a portion of the ransom money. Regional security faces danger because Ansar Allah support allows Al-Shabaab access to advanced weapons and generates new ways for both groups to raise funds thus intensifying instability throughout the Horn of Africa and its adjacent maritime areas. Instead of being limited to an arms transaction these two groups work together philosophically to rebuff Western involvement in their region.
Securing regional and international strategy becomes crucial as Al-Shabaab maintains its increasing military capability. The union between Al-Shabaab and Houthi forces creates a complex security risk which changes how the region operates. The enhanced weaponry and broader operational capabilities transform Al-Shabaab from an area insurgent organization into a noteworthy threat across the region. Effective counterterrorism measures require expansion to prevent growth of international terrorism threats.
If the Houthis and Al-Shabaab have already formed an alliance, it’s a worrying shift with serious consequences for Somalia. Both groups have long histories of violence and instability Al-Shabaab with its deadly insurgency in Somalia, and the Houthis, who have been embroiled in a brutal civil war in Yemen. Now, with their alliance, Somalia could see an influx of missiles and arms, escalating the already volatile situation. This could make the conflict even harder to manage, not only in Somalia but across the Horn of Africa.
- Mustafa Osman Farah is a researcher with a focus on terrorism and counterterrorism in the Horn of Africa, examining the evolving dynamics of security and extremist groups in the region ↩︎
