Today marks 20 years since Somalia established its Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in 2004, a pivotal moment in the nation’s recent history. The TFG, led by President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi, was formed following the Carta agreements and was structured around a 4.5 power-sharing formula. This formula aimed to distribute power among Somalia’s various clans and factions, uniting influential political and military leaders, including key warlords.
The TFG was notable for laying the groundwork for a federal system—a decentralized form of governance meant to replace the Transitional National Government that had come before. Central to this effort was the creation of an Independent Constitutional Committee, which was tasked with drafting a new constitution in line with federal principles. This was a critical step toward reshaping Somalia’s political landscape after years of instability and conflict.
Since then, Somalia has seen important political milestones. In 2012, the Federal Government of Somalia was created following the approval of the Provisional Federal Constitution, and from 2013 onwards, federal member states began to form. These developments have been key to Somalia’s state-building process.
However, two decades on, Somalia’s federalism project is still at a critical juncture. The debate over the balance of power between the federal government and member states remains unresolved, and political factions have struggled to find consensus. Puntland, a staunch supporter of federalism, withdrew from state-building talks two years ago, accusing President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of unilaterally amending the constitution and derailing the process. Puntland remains committed to the provisional constitution, which grants the federal government authority over only four key areas: foreign policy, defense, monetary policy, and immigration. Puntland continues to advocate for greater autonomy for federal member states, reflecting ongoing tensions over the division of power.
Meanwhile, Somaliland, self-declared independent region, has remained absent from federal discussions, further complicating efforts to build a unified federal system in Somalia.
As Somalia’s federalism project faces growing challenges, failure to resolve these disputes could threaten the progress made over the past 20 years. The nation now stands at a crossroads, with the path forward requiring careful negotiation, compromise, and a renewed commitment to federalism—or risk unraveling the fragile stability that has been achieved.
