President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s decision to attend the inauguration of Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam has cast doubt on Mogadishu’s diplomatic alignment, potentially weakening Cairo’s hand in its long-running dispute with Addis Ababa.
Diplomats say the move undermines two central pillars of Somalia’s foreign policy in recent years: its strategic partnership with Egypt and a tripartite alliance with Cairo and Eritrea, announced in Asmara in October 2024, that was aimed at countering Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions.
Egypt has long opposed the dam, which it sees as an existential threat to its water security and a challenge to Sudan’s stability. Somalia’s public show of support for Addis Ababa could be read as a breach of the solidarity that Cairo has sought to build among Arab and Red Sea states.
Analysts note that Egypt was instrumental in rallying the Arab League to oppose Ethiopia’s push for access to Somali waters earlier last year. By appearing alongside Ethiopian officials at the dam opening, President Hassan Sh Mohamud risks diluting that backing and giving Ethiopia leverage at a critical moment.
“For Egypt, which has invested heavily in defending Somalia’s sovereignty on international platforms, President Hassan Sheikh’s presence in GERD is seen as a symbolic win for Ethiopia and a potential setback to Arab consensus.” An analyst said.
