Somalia is at a critical crossroads, with just 18 months remaining until its parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for May 2026. A new policy brief by the Heritage Institute for Policy Studies has warned that growing political divisions and corruption threaten to derail the fragile federal system established over two decades ago.
The report warns that growing tensions between Somalia’s federal government and its member states could dismantle decades of hard-won progress since the end of the civil war.
“This isn’t just politics as usual,” the report states. “Somalia’s future as a stable, democratic state is on the line.”
A nation divided
At the heart of the crisis is the strained relationship between the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States (FMS). Early this year, the FGS amended key sections of the provisional constitution without consulting state leaders. In response, Puntland, one of Somalia’s most influential regions, cut ties with the central government.
“This wasn’t about the content of the changes,” the report notes. “It was the exclusionary process that shattered trust in the federal system.”
Meanwhile, parliament—meant to serve as a check on executive power—has been sidelined. Allegations of legislative manipulation and a lack of transparency have deepened public skepticism.
Federal Government vs. Jubbaland: A bloody reminder
In Raskamboni earlier this year, federal troops clashed with forces loyal to Jubbaland, one of Somalia’s member states. Instead of uniting against their shared enemy, al-Shabaab, these forces turned on each other.
The fallout was devastating. Al-Shabaab exploited the chaos, seizing new opportunities to spread terror. “This isn’t just a political feud,” the report warns. “It’s costing lives and weakening Somalia’s fight against terrorism.”
Corruption and donor fatigue
Somalia has long struggled with corruption, and little has changed. Mismanagement of public funds, patronage, and a lack of accountability are draining trust in government.
“Donors, who fund approximately 70% of #Somalia’s federal budget, are growing weary of the persistent political squabbles, lack of progress, and misuse of resources. Without urgent action, Somalia risks losing
critical international support for its recovery efforts.” Report noted.
A war stalled
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud came into office promising to take the fight to al-Shabaab. For a time, it worked. But a devastating al-Shabaab counterattack in August 2023 shattered momentum, leaving the military campaign in disarray.
The African Union, meanwhile, is scaling back its peacekeeping mission. Without additional resources and a coordinated strategy, Somalia risks ceding more ground to the insurgents.
What needs to change
The Heritage Institute doesn’t just highlight the problems—it offers solutions. The report calls for a national dialogue involving regional leaders, civil society, and former government officials. It also recommends forming a unity government to lead political and security reforms.
On corruption, the report urges swift action: create an independent anti-corruption body, enforce accountability, and increase government transparency.
“This is Somalia’s last chance to turn things around before the 2026 elections,” the report concludes. “Bold action is not optional—it’s necessary.”