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Ethiopia’s Push for Red Sea Access Faces Strong Opposition

Ethiopia’s attempt to secure access to the Red Sea under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed faces major regional challenges, with experts warning it could trigger political and security tensions across the Horn of Africa.

Abdiwahab Sheikh Abdisamad, the founder and executive director of the AfroAsia Institute, highlighted five critical obstacles that make Ethiopia’s ambitions a daunting task:

  1. Egypt’s Staunch Opposition

Abdisamad explains that Egypt views Ethiopia’s potential presence in the Red Sea as a direct threat to its national security. “Cairo will strongly reject such a move, especially given the already tense relationship over the Nile,” he said.

  1. Eritrea’s Security Concerns

Neighboring Eritrea is equally unlikely to welcome Ethiopian access to the Red Sea. According to Abdisamad, Eritrea perceives Ethiopia as a threat to its sovereignty, and any such move would deepen its distrust of Addis Ababa.

  1. Djibouti’s Economic Vulnerability

Djibouti’s economy is heavily dependent on Ethiopia’s use of its ports. “Djibouti has made significant investments in port infrastructure for Ethiopian trade. If Ethiopia finds an alternative route to the Red Sea, it would be a major economic and security setback for Djibouti,” Abdisamad noted.

  1. UAE’s Strategic Investments

The UAE, a key ally of Ethiopia, could also oppose this ambition unless it aligns with its own interests. The Gulf nation has heavily invested in Berbera Port in Somaliland, primarily to serve Ethiopia’s market. “Any move by Ethiopia to bypass Berbera would undermine UAE’s strategic investments,” he added.

  1. Houthi Threats and Regional Instability

Abdisamad warned that Yemen’s Houthi rebels could escalate tensions if Ethiopia gains access to the Red Sea. “The Houthis might see this as an opportunity for Israel to expand its presence in the region, prompting them to arm groups like Al-Shabaab or ISIS to counter Ethiopia,” he explained.

Regional Implications

Abdisamad cautioned that Ethiopia’s pursuit of a Red Sea presence could ignite widespread conflict in an already volatile region. “This ambition could set the entire region on fire,” he said, describing Prime Minister Abiy’s vision as unrealistic under the current geopolitical landscape.

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