While the Trump administration’s tariff hikes have dominated headlines this year, a significant powerplay is quietly unfolding in Africa.
Deteriorating relations between Taiwan and economic powerhouse South Africa and the Federal Republic of Somalia, both of which are fervent backers of the “one-China” principle, have highlighted the surging influence of Beijing in Africa.
It comes at a time when the relationship between Pretoria and Washington has soured due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s imposition of a 30% tariff on South African exports, largely stemming from the republic’s genocide case against American ally Israel at the International Court of Justice.
The U.S. government also slashed USAID-backed projects worth more than $400m in famine-affected Somalia this year, according to documents leaked by Congress and analysed by The Independent news outlet in the UK.
South Africa, a BRICS member, and Somalia have made no secret of their allegiance to China as titanic geopolitical shifts unfold.
Similarly, Xi Jinping’s government has been quick to spot an opportunity to further cement its influence in Africa while furthering its ambitions to bring Taiwan, another U.S. ally, into its fold after decades of tense stand-off.
Both South Africa and Somalia have taken steps against Taiwan in recent months, which, while seemingly slight within the broader global context, sends a clear signal that they stand firmly on the side of China.
Earlier this year, South Africa officially withdrew its recognition of Taiwan’s representative office in the capital of Pretoria – reportedly without even consulting Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
South Africa has been putting pressure on Taiwan to move its office out of the capital to Johannesburg, arguing that having it in the administrative seat of government violates the country’s one-China principle, adopted in 1998.
Yet Pretoria also insists its relationship with Taiwan is “non-political” and any decision made is based on “fundamentally shifting” economic diplomacy.
United Nations General Assembly Resolution 2758 was adopted in 1971 to accommodate the People’s Republic of China’s inclusion. It meant that the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official name, could no longer be represented.
Taiwan initially did not take South Africa’s pressure to relocate its office lying down.
In September, it rolled out a series of restrictions on the export of advanced semiconductor chips to South Africa – crucial to the republic’s automotive sector, which is already struggling under U.S. tariffs.
Taiwan then backtracked on the move, ostensibly because it would hurt the interests of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world’s largest chip manufacturer.
The about-turn was also driven by South Africa’s willingness to engage in talks.
Somalia, meanwhile, was even more explicit in its actions against Taiwan, banning all Taiwanese passport-holders from entering the country in April.
This, too, was later lifted due to pressure from the United States.
Taiwan has ramped up efforts to establish strong ties with Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia 34 years ago.
While Somaliland is not recognised by any sovereign state, Taiwan has now established a diplomatic office there and Somaliland one in Taipei. In addition, Taiwan and Somaliland are on the brink of signing an historic military cooperation agreement.
Taiwan has already provided military training to Somaliland’s soldiers.
Taiwan is using financial diplomacy, including funds, investment, technical and financial cooperation, to gain political traction with Somaliland.
In September 2024, Taiwan committed $2 million to support Somaliland’s 2024 presidential and party elections.
As these developments occur, China is using its economic might to ensure its two African supporters continue to solidify its position on the continent.
In 2024 alone, China invested $13.21 billion in South Africa, 92% of which was in the form of manufactured goods. Chinese carmakers Chery and GWM also intend assembling vehicles in South Africa, where their brands’ market share is soaring annually.
Last year, China and Somalia also announced a $1.2 billion investment partnership to improve infrastructure, energy and agriculture sectors in the East African nation.
Furthermore, China is significantly bolstering Somalia’s aquaculture industry through financial support and training.
With all that has occurred in the past 24 months, it is apparent that South Africa and Somalia are increasingly being viewed as important strategic points in an intensifying geopolitical battle between China and the U.S.
In a climate of trade uncertainty and blatant power-brokerage, these two nations suddenly find themselves in the once-unlikely position of kingmaker.
Though China currently holds sway, South Africa and Somalia also recognise that they cannot yet afford to completely sever ties with the U.S. or Taiwan.
Doing so would deal a crippling economic blow, particularly to South Africa’s auto sector.
For Somalia, which retains its status as a key U.S, ally in the region despite the travel ban friction with Taiwan, there is still a reliance on American aid, even if it is not what it once was.
The next 12 months will prove decisive in which way the pendulum swings.
Kingmakers they may be, but South Africa and Somalia also will need to perform a fine balancing act if they are to safeguard their own interests.
OP-ED by John Harvey, a South African journalist and content producer who has written for publications in Africa, Europe, the United States, Asia and the Middle East over a career spanning more than two decades.
