Puntland, a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Somalia, is preparing for a major military operation to dismantle ISIS militants in the Cal Miskaad mountains of the Bari region. President Said Abdullahi Deni has declared war on the group, making this offensive a crucial step in Somalia’s battle against extremism. The operation also underscores the broader geopolitical and security challenges in the region.
The Build-Up to the Offensive
Thousands of Puntland’s Darawish forces and counterterrorism units have been mobilized, supported by advanced weaponry and military vehicles. Troops are currently stationed in Kalabayr, Bari region, in what appears to be the final phase of preparations. Local sources who spoke to Daily Somalia and requested anonymity due to security reasons said that ISIS militants, referred to as “anti-peace groups” by Puntland officials, have begun abandoning villages in the Cal Miskaad area and retreating to higher ground.
The insurgents, estimated to number between 1,000 and 1,200, include a significant proportion of foreign nationals, mostly believed to be from Ethiopia. Their presence in these areas for nearly a decade has made them a persistent threat not only to Puntland but also to the broader security of the Horn of Africa.
The Rise of the ISIS Militant
The Islamic State first appeared in Somalia in late 2015 in Puntland when pro-Islamic State commanders within al-Shabaab defected and pledged allegiance to then-caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Led by Mumin, a former ideologue within al-Shabaab, these militants established a presence in Puntland’s northern region. In October 2016, they briefly captured and occupied the northern port town of Qandala, drawing international attention. In 2017, the group was officially recognized as a province of the Islamic State.
In recent years, ISIS shifted its focus to economic extortion, targeting local businesses and fishermen. UN reports indicate the group’s monthly revenue increased from $70,000 in 2018 to over $2.5 million by 2021. Additionally, as documented by the U.S. Treasury in July 2023, “in the first half of 2022, ISIS-Somalia generated nearly $2 million by collecting extortion payments from local businesses, related imports, livestock, and agriculture.” This financial growth has bolstered its ranks, attracting foreign fighters and allegedly strengthening ties with Yemen’s Houthi insurgents, raising concerns about regional security.
Despite Puntland’s successes against extremists in the past, including operations against the terrorist groups Al-Shabaab in 2010 and ISIS in 2016, experts warn of logistical and environmental challenges. The rugged terrain, harsh conditions, and fragmented military structure complicate efforts to dismantle ISIS’s network.
According to intelligence sources, ISIS has established military bases in the Cal Miskaad mountainous area of the Bari region, including key locations such as Moqoro, Dhabancaddo, Tursamaale, and Siido, all strategically positioned along the Balade valley near Boosaaso. The group has also built a network of connecting roads, including routes near Gargoore, Hantaara, Xabley, and the village of Tasjiic, which enhances their mobility and operational reach in the region.
Strategic Challenges and Recommendations
Puntland, known for its past victories against extremist groups in 2010 and 2016, now faces substantial challenges in a new offensive against ISIS militants. The rugged terrain and harsh conditions of the Cal Miskaad mountains create logistical hurdles, while fragmented military structures further complicate coordination.
A security expert, speaking on condition of anonymity, highlighted significant obstacles, including the disjointed nature of Puntland’s forces and the disconnect between the government and local communities. These weaknesses, the expert warned, could allow militants to exploit gaps in the counteroffensive.
In counterinsurgency efforts, international best practices emphasize the importance of winning “hearts and minds.” The Puntland government must prioritize building trust with local communities, whose support is essential for gathering intelligence, denying militants sanctuary, and ensuring long-term stability. Engaging community leaders, religious figures, and civil society organizations in the region can help bridge gaps and foster a unified front against ISIS.
Developing community-driven initiatives that address local grievances—such as access to services, security, and economic opportunities—is key to undermining ISIS’s influence. By improving essential services, ensuring consistent security, and fostering economic growth, the Puntland government can gain the trust and support of local communities. This approach weakens ISIS’s appeal and recruitment efforts.
The Role of International Support
Several security experts consider international assistance vital in countering the ISIS-Houthi nexus and preventing broader destabilization in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region. A unified strategy, supported by Somalia’s partners, is essential for achieving long-term peace and stability.
Airstrikes have been identified as a crucial tool in the fight against ISIS. The militants’ use of sniper rifles and elevated positions in the mountains gives them a strategic edge. “Whenever airstrikes are deployed, ISIS fighters are forced to retreat, disrupting their operations and making their strongholds more vulnerable,” noted a security expert.
Puntland’s anti-ISIS offensive represents a critical test of its military capabilities and strategic planning. While the challenges are considerable, a holistic approach that combines military action with community engagement and international cooperation offers the best prospects for success. The outcome of this operation will likely shape the trajectory of counterterrorism efforts in Somalia and the broader region.
©️The Daily Somalia
