By: Osman Aidarus.
Background
The news of Muse Bihi, the former President of Somalia’s Northern breakaway region of Somaliland, signing a controversial ‘MOU’ with the Ethiopian Prime Minister on the first day of 2024, drew waves of indignation from Somalis at what they perceived as a clear violation of their country’s unity and sovereignty.
From the little the media was told, the MOU whose full contents still remain shrouded in secrecy, was predicated on Somaliland granting landlocked Ethiopia a ‘port of her own’ and a ‘permanent naval base’, and in exchange, the breakaway region would be getting a ‘stake’ in Ethiopian Airlines and ensuing recognition by Addis Ababa.
Many saw this impulsive move as an attempt at a catharsis, given both men were at the time under huge internal pressures, with the breakaway region having its security forces and governing bodies altogether kicked out of large swathes of land it claimed just months prior to the MOU’s signature, putting a huge dent in its ambitions to rule over the entirety of Britain’s colonial borders, and Abiy, for having his military routed by a concoction of rebel groups, most problematic of which was Fano, a nationalist Amhara rebel group that had been waging a relentless war against the Ethiopian government for a number of years.
And thus, both parties, markedly intending to appease their local bases, signed this MOU; Muse selling his public the dream that Somaliland was finally getting recognition from a major African player, and Abiy assuring Ethiopians that their age-old dream of reaching the sea was about to be realized.
Ethiopia Doubles Down
Following its violation of a sovereign nation’s unity, Ethiopia, emboldened by its firm cognizance that in their current state, Somalia’s government(s) and leader(s), federal or regional, are her vassals, repeatedly doubled down on its demeaning and provocative behaviour.
Only days after signing the MOU, its ambassador to Somalia gave an interview calling Somalia ‘a colonial creation, not a real country’. Its Prime Minister giving a speech to his parliament, stated it was time ‘their neighbours shouldered the burden his country’s landlockedness causes’, somehow blaming nature’s choices on Somalia.
The Somali Government’s Paradoxical Approach
Somalia’s federal government handled the many Ethiopian infractions extremely poorly, as it had throughout been sending out mixed and contradictory signals, a theme that overall is consistent in the country’s foreign affairs. This ‘figure it out as you go’ approach not only confused outside onlookers but the Somali public too.
From the onset, the lack of an elaborate national policy to stick with throughout — put in place by the administration — was apparent. Everything was per the President’s whim and what he felt on the day, who at times was adopting intense language on the podium, calling Ethiopia Somalia’s second foe after the al-Shabab terrorist group, and at other times, was in a submissive tone, beseeching Ethiopia and affirming how they have no problems with her.
Though the Somali government was at least ‘officially’ refusing to meet Ethiopian officials unless they ‘rescinded’ the MOU, they were secretly sitting down with them in various capitals. Not once were diplomatic ties with Ethiopia severed nor its disdainful ambassador dismissed.
Summoned to Turkey
Turkey, the foreign country with the second most investments in Ethiopia, had offered to ‘mediate’ between the two countries since their relations soured. The two foreign ministers were summoned to Ankara, made to meet and read out joint communiques.
Even in Ankara, the Ethiopian delegation, adamant, refused to walk back the infamous MOU — invoking a card they often use against Somalia — that many of their troops have perished to keep al-Shabab at bay.
That argument, flawed, leaves out how al-Shabab was a fledgling, fringe group before the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia circa 2006, and that invasion was what lent them the legitimacy and credibility to posture themselves as resistance fighters and recruit en masse.
Ankara’s Coercive Role
Despite the Somali government’s best efforts to mislead its public and paint Turkey as this saviour of an ally that will earnestly commit to Somalia’s defence all the way through, in truth, Ankara cares about Somalia’s sovereignty as much as the next guy.
Turkey’s foreign policy under Erdogan, a realpolitik, has always been one of inconsistent stances and grand opportunism — devoid of unwavering principles. He initially ‘supported’ the Arab spring aimed at the ouster of Arab dictators, but walked back his criticisms of the leaders who survived their ouster campaigns. He once pledged to never meet Egypt’s El-Sisi, but has recently forged a warm relationship with him. Just a month before his expulsion, he was prepared to mend ties with the now chased-away Syrian dictator. So, it was too naive to expect Turkey fully backing the wronged Somali side in this equation.
Only a day before the signature of the ‘Ankara declaration’, and while the Somali President’s flight was en route to Ankara, thousands of additional Ethiopian troops entered Somalia, rendering a city’s airport nonoperational, a move meant to strong-arm the Somali delegation. And all of these steps worked, culminating in the disaster that was named the ‘Ankara declaration’ on the 12th of December, which was a complete surrender on Somalia’s part and a comprehensive victory on Ethiopia’s, under Turkey’s aegis. Addis, historically maximalist, had nothing to lose but everything to gain, and gain everything it did.
It was granted Somali waters, did not walk back the MOU, managed to have its troops mandated to be included in the renewed ‘African Union Peace-keeping Mission’, and the cherry on top; this deal helped it break free of its diplomatic alienation.
Somalia’s leaders on the other hand, ensnared, succumbed to every one of Ethiopia’s demands, and the humiliation aside, walked away with the country’s unity still in question, and a ‘deal’ that sets a dangerous precedent, which will down the line have unpleasant repercussions in store for Mogadisho, its tenor: Somalia can be bullied into accepting anything, and nothing, its sovereignty included, is off the table.
